WHAT THEN IS SPORT BETTING?
Sport betting is simply predicting the outcome of an event just before the event get started. And if the event player out exactly as you predicted, you win some money for yourself. How much you will win surely depend on the event or sport you predicted and also on the odd offered and the amount of money you stake on the event or game.
Since the introduction of sport betting into the country (Nigeria), many youths or bettor has been asking or researching on a sure way or strategy of making money betting or predicting an outcome of an event. The truth still remain that no one has actually figured out a good strategy that is capable of guaranteeing success in a long run.
Few claimed they have the key of constant winning but intends to sell their idea to the people who are interested instead of sharing the idea for free or even a pay after winning, while others think the best way to win and continue winning is to subscribe to fixed match channel either on WhatsApp or Telegram and pay for every game which in turn is a very big problems to many who can not afford the fee these people are charging for their odds. Some time the so called sure game always get cut and the only thing they tell you after that is, Sorry! "This is the first time our super odds cut, but try and subscribe to our next odds with 100% chances and recover your lost money".
Basically there are two types of bettors, casual bettors, and professional punter. Casual bettors are those that make up the 95% of the total number of people who spent the entire year without making any profit in the betting game while the remaining people (5%) are the only set of people who make interest at the end of every season. These are those who take betting as their personal business and invest a lot into the business while expecting interest by the end of every season.
WHAT KIND OF BETTOR ARE YOU?
This is a question you should ask yourself at this time. If you belong to the casual bettors, then you are the reason why bookmakers are still in business and blowing in big profit week after week.
HOW TO IDENTIFY A CASUAL BETTOR.
Casual bettors are very easy to be identified compared to the professional bettors. A casual bettors are people who:
Stake small to win big.
Bet anything ( valued or no valued).
Always betting on long ticket.
Spent very little or no time on research before laying their bet.
Always losing their hard earned money.
Don't have betting strategy.
No specific money set aside for betting. (Bankroll).
No record of their bet (no bet tracker).
Always focusing on one bookmaker.
Always complaining of ticket cut.
If you have any or all the above listed, then you are a typical casual punter and God forbid, you are still on the losing trend if you don't change your ways soon.
HOW TO IDENTIFY A PROFESSIONAL PUNTER.
to identify a professional punter, you need to look out for the following:
They have a working space for their betting activities.
They hardly socialize with casual bettor.
They have more than four active bookmaker account and funded.
They track every game they play whether winning or losing.
They keep their financial record intact.
They have a betting strategy and follow it religiously.
They have their betting time table and follow them.
Most of them have their prediction model to assist them.
They bet only on value and nothing else.
They specialized on particular sport or event.
Their interest (profit) is always guaranteed by the end of the season.
They lost small and win small.
They hardly play multiple bet (long ticket).
They know how to beat the bookies (have edge over the bookmaker).
You hardly see them at betting shop this days.
Why am I telling you these?
The truth about sport betting is that only The Almighty God can correctly give you a 100% sure game without any fear of losing your hard earn money.
WILL I WIN IF I START ONLINE SPORT BETTING TODAY?
The fact that many people are losing doesn't mean that you cannot make it in sport betting. Before we continue, let me tell you a little story about my betting career. To tell you the truth, the first year I started this so called sport betting (Bet9ja), I lost everything I mean everything without a single withdrawal.
My thought at that time was that this sport betting thing is frauds and nothing more until one day I decided to research into the sport betting thing, there I discovered that in order to become successful in sport betting, you need to have at least little knowledge of elementary mathematics, you can read and write and more to that have little knowledge about computer and excel to make it in sport betting business.
Why computer you may asked, the truth is to make it in sport betting, you need to invest more of your time and resources into the business before expecting anything in return.
WHY YOU NEED TO BE A MATHEMATICIAN.
In sport betting, every single odds represent the chances of that particular event to occur. For example a match between RB Leipzig and Bayern's Munich on the 13th of May, 2019 is price at 4.70 (home) 4.40 (draw) and 1.70 (Away) on Nairabet. To understands betting, you first needs to understands what odd mean and represent.
WHAT IS ODD?
Odds is the representation of the chance of an event to occur or simply a price a booky is willing to pay the bettor if the event actually occur. Like in the example of RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich is priced at 4.70, 4.40 and 1.70 respectively.
TYPES OF ODDS.
basically there are three types of odds commonly used across the globe in sport betting.
1. DECIMAL ODD.
Decimal odd are the common of the three types of odd used around the globe today. They are straight forward and easy to understand compared to the other types of of odd. Example of decimal odd are: 4.70 for RB Leipzig to win, 4.40 for RB Leipzig to draw the match, and 1.70 for Bayern Munich to win the match.
Example: RB Leipzig to draw is priced at 4.40 and if you stake $100 on the outcome, your potential win will be $100 x 4.40 = $440. Detailed process of decimal odd conversion will be explain later as we go on.
2. FRACTIONAL ODD.
It is the second kind of odd used by some bookmaker around the globe, unlike decimal odd, fractional odd as the name implied, appear in fractional forms like 9/4, 6/5 etc, and they represent ratios.
To understand fractional odd, you first of all need to know how to convert fractional odd to decimal odd and then convert it to percentage or chances.
To convert fractional odd to decimal odds, using the 9/4 as an example, you need to divide the 9 by 4 and then add 1 to the answer to get a decimal odd.
Example: 9÷4 = 2.5 + 1 = 3.5
To calculate your profit using the fractional odd, after converting your odd to decimal as in above equation, all you need is to multiply the odd by the stake amount to get the potential winning and then subtract the stake amount from the potential winning to get your profit.
Example, using the fraction odd of 9/4 and a stake amount of $1000, you first convert it to decimal odd using the above fractional to decimal conversion process, which is 3.5
Profit = ($1000 X 3.5) - $1000
Profit = ($3500) - $1000
Profit = $2500
To convert the decimal odd to chances, divide 1 by the decimal odd and multiply it by 100:
1/3.5= 0.2857 x 100 = 28.57%.
Meaning 9/4 fractional odd is the same thing as 3.5 and it represent 28.57% chances.
3. AMERICAN ODD.
This is rarely used in sport betting, but for the sake of completeness, I decided to put it on this article. American odd also called the money line appear in two ways, either negative telling you how much you need to stake to win $100 or positive telling you how much you will make if you stake $100
Examples, if you see an American odd of -150, what this mean is that if you stake $150 on the outcome, you will make extra $100 dollar.
But if you see +150, what it means is that if you stake $100 you will make $150 in return. In the American odd, all you need to remember is that negative means the amount you need to stake to make $100 while positive mean the amount you will win if you stake $100. To convert American odd to decimal odd and then to implied chances, you need to do this:
Convert the odd to decimal odd by dividing the 150 in the positive odd by 100, that is,
150÷100 = 1.5, to get the chances, divide 1 by the result and multiply by 100%,
1/1.50 x 100% = 66.67%
Now to calculate your profit using the American odd, in positive odd,
(stake amount/100) X positive odd.
E.G. with the odd of +135 and a stake amount of $200, using the positive money line formula,
You will have:
($200/100) x +135 = $270 profits + your stake amount which is $470 potential winning.
In the negative money line odd, to calculate the profit you need to use the following formula:
(100/negative odd) X stake amount.
Example, odd -130 and stake amount $300. Using the negative money line formula,
(100/130) X $300
(0.768) X $300
Profit = $230 + your stake amount, which is $530 potential winning.
To see American, Fractional and Decimal odd in display, try Nairabet. They have all the three forms of odds and all you need is to click on any of them at the top left conner of the homepage.
THE MATHS IN DECIMAL ODDS.
Back to the decimal odd, the 4.70 for RB Leipzig, 4.40 for RB Leipzig to draw, and 1.70 for Bayern Munich to win, what this mean is that, RB Leipzig has 21% chance to win, 22% chance to draw and 59% for Bayern's Munich to win. Understanding how to convert odds to implied chances, you need a little mathematical skills.
Below is a simple way to convert odd to percentage.
RB Leipzig. V. Bayern Munich
4.70. 4.40. 1.70
To convert odd to percentage, the first thing you need to do is divide one by the odd and multiply it 100.
RB Leipzig: 1/4.70*100=21%.
DRAW: 1/4.40*100=23%
Bayern : 1/1.70*100=59%
Convert percent to odd, all you need to do is divide one by the percentage and multiply it by 100.
RB Leipzig: 1/21 *100= 4.70
Draw : 1/23 *100 = 4.40
Bayern: 1/59*100 = 1.70
Very simple right?
Now that you have the percentage of the event to occur, the next thing you need to do is to calculate the bookmaker margin.
WHAT IS BOOKMAKER MARGIN?
Bookmaker margin also called, overrun, juice or commission is the percentage a bookmaker take as interest or profit for any accepted bet. What this actually mean, is that each time you stake a game or bet, the bookmaker make sure of their profit even if you win or loss.
To understand betting or become successful in betting, you need to understand how the margin influence the outcome of an event.
To calculate the bookmaker margins, you need to use the following formula
(1/event A) + (1/event B) + (1/event C)-1*100
Example: RB Leipzig 4.70. Draw 4.40. Bayern 1.70
Margin = (1/4.70)+(1/4.40)+(1/1.70)-1*100
Margin =(0.21)+(0.23).(0.59)-1*100
Margin = (1.03)-1 * 100
Margin = 0.03 * 100
Margin = 3%
The above margin calculation is very important to anyone who seriously want to become successful in sport betting. To look for the right bookmaker, you need to apply the above formula on every bookmaker before betting on their platform. To avoid cheap odds always find out the bookmaker margin first. Remember, any margin between 0.5 to 4.5 is good, but try to avoid any margin higher than 4.5.
After knowing the margin (interest) the bookmaker will make from you if you bet a game, the next thing is for you to decide whether or not the bookmaker (betting site) are correct sincere about the implied chances, if you think the odd actually represent the true chance of an event to occur, the next thing is for you to stake on the outcome with the highest chance of occurring but just before you stake the game, the next question you need to ask yourself, is there any value in the game I want bet?
WHAT IS VALUE BET.
A value bet is a bet in which the outcome of an event to occur is more likely than the odd the bookmaker are implying.
Using the above example, RB Leipzig actual chance is 45%, 31% to draw, and 28% for Bayern Munich to win. After getting the actual chance for the event to occur, next thing is for you to add the implied chance using the below method.
Value bet = (actual chance x decimal odd).
RB Leipzig = 45% X 4.70 = 211%
Draw = 31 X 4.40 = 136%
Bayern Munich = 28% x 1.70 = -47%
Using the value bet calculator, RB Leipzig has 211% value, draw has 136% while Bayern has -47%.
Naturally at this point in time, you can see that if you had followed the bookmaker, you may have lost your money again because they are trying to make you believe that Bayern has high chance of winning the game instead of telling you that RB Leipzig has the highest chance.
After calculating the value involved in the match, the next thing you need to consider is the desired to win by the both team. RB Leipzig is already in the top four which mean they have nothing to lose if they draw or lost this match, while Bayern are seriously fighting for the league tittle which mean if they lose this match and Dortmund win their match, they will only be one point ahead of Dortmund and will still play Frankfurt in their next fixture, but if they draw this match and Dortmund win their match, they will be 2 point ahead of Dortmund.
Look into their recent matches, to see whether there was any injury or suspension that will affect our bet, remember negative effect on the team we wish to bet on is not good but positive effect is exactly what we need to stay ahead of the bookmaker.
Apart from injuries and suspension, you also need to look at the weather forecast, snow mean less performance, rain mean low goals and very high temperature also mean under performance by the both team.
After putting all these into consideration, since we have value in betting on RB Leipzig to win or even to draw, at this time, I will advice you to leave greed out of the picture and bet on either RB Leipzig to draw at 4.40 or home win and draw at 2.3.
HOW MUCH DO I STAKE?
This is were many people always get it wrong. How you need to stake on a particular match or bet is something if not carefully taken or considered, it will bankrupt you in a matter of time.
As a professional punter, you need a system or staking strategy that will guide you on how much you need to stake on a bet.
My betting model is also equipped with the most popular staking strategy developed more than 5 decades which is currently use by many punter across the globe.
For the sake of completeness, I will show you the formula you can use on every bet.
Before showing you the formula, the first think you need is a bankroll.
WHAT IS A BANKROLL?
Bankroll is an amount of money set aside for gambling or sport betting. Many people still bet from their daily or monthly income without apportioning any specific part to sport betting. As a professional sport punter, you need to set aside some amount of money you will be using for your sport betting activities within a specific time frame and this money set aside is what we called bankroll.
HOW MUCH DO I NEED FOR MY BANKROLL?
This depends on your financial strength and the level of commitment you have toward sport betting. It is advisable for one to start with a 100 unit worth of bankroll. This actually mean you need an amount of money that will allow you to bet on at least 100 bets (that is,100 * 100 =10,000) for a start and reinvest as you make more profit. You can as well start with a bankroll of $5000 if you cannot afford the 100 bets worth of bankroll.
Assuming your bankroll is $5000, your first bet will be to back the draw between RB Leipzig And Bayern Munich at the odd of 4.40,
Using the Kelly criterion formula:
Kelly Criterion = (BP - Q)/B
Where
B = decimal odd - 1
P = probability of success.
Q = probability of failure (1 - p)
Using RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich as our example:
B = 4.49 - 1 = 3.40.
P= 45÷100 = 0.45
Q = 1 - 0.45 = 0.55
Now = (3.40*0.45-0.55)/3.40
= (1.53-0.55)/3.40
= 0.98/3.40
= 0.29
Kelly Criterion = 0.29 * our bankroll
= 0.29 * 5000
Kelly Criterion = 1441
That is it.
If we are going to back the draw, we are to stake $1,441.
HOW MUCH WILL I WIN?
After knowing the amount of money you will need to stake on the bet, the next thing you need to know is how much you will make from the bet.
To calculate your potential win, here is the simple formula.
Potential win = amount stake multiply by the odd.
Potential win = $1441 * 4.40 = $6,340.4
Very simple right?
HOW DO I MANAGE MY BANKROLL?
This may be tough for most bettors but if you seriously want to make it in sport betting, you need to take your bankroll management seriously as your failure or success surely depend on how efficient you managed your bankroll.
Apart from using the Kelly Criterion as one of the best way to stake or play your game, another logical way is for you to use the constant or fixed amount to play your game.
The advantage of using a fixed or constant amount for all your bet is that, you will not run shut of bankroll anytime soon compared to those using the Kelly Criterion as theirs my involved staking high on some game with very high odds and values.
The downside is that, your bankroll will grow very slowly compared to the person using the Kelly Criterion as their staking methods.
Little advise, for fixed stake, used #100 an make sure you don't bet game with odd less than 1.50 or else you will not see or notice any growth in got bankroll anytime soon.
WHERE TO PLACE MY BET.
You now have a game to bet, how much to stake on the game, how much to make from the game but where to stake the game is the next thing you need to reconsider,
We use Nairabet in the example but just before you make the deposit or stake the game, you still need to go round the available bookmaker to compare their odd with the one you have at hand, if you notice a bookmaker offering more than 4.40 for RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich to draw, then I will at this time advice you to stake on the bookmaker platform.
Remember this is all about winning big at the end.
WHAT IF THE GAME CUT?
like I said earlier, the only person who can give you a 100% game is the almighty God in heaven no other person on earth. But the essence if this preaching was not for you to win every game but to make sure you make some profit before exhausting your bankroll.
Let me tell you how it works,
Assume you stake your first game on RB Leipzig to draw their match, RB Leipzig instead win their match, what this mean is that your first bet is a lost and that also mean you will loss $1441 of your total bankroll leaving you with only $3559. Your next match is to back Man United to draw their match with Cardiff City and stake $559 and they did not play out again, what this mean is that your second bet is again a failure and you lost another $559 leaving you with $3,000 bankroll. In your next match, you decided to bet on lower league and you came across Heidenheim in Germany - Bundles Liga 2 which was over price at 3.5 odd, you religiously stake with $1000 you required by the Kelly Criterion, the game play throw and you win $3500 with an interest of $2500 giving you a bankroll of $5500.
You decided to stake on 2% valued game which you played with $250 with an odd of 2.00, and the game miraculously play through again, you make a small amount of 500 with and interes of 250 giving you a new bankroll of $5750.
What I am trying to explain to you is that, if you bet only on valued game, two win can recover your last three or four loses. The important thing you need to always remember, is to never bet on any odd less than 1.50 because you will hardly recover your loses even if you win more than three time in a row.
As long as the game you play has value, I advice you to play and wait for the big day to come.
SHOULD I KEEP RECORD OF MY BET?
Yes, yes and yes.
Keeping record of your bet is very important as this will allow you to track your success and failure rate for easy change of coast if you are on the wrong track. With the bet tracker, you can monitor all your bet from one point or sheet. Here is an example of a bet tracker.
This is a record of just 3 days but already a profit of $3,895 has been achieved.
At this time, I think I have to allow you some breathing space to assimilate all what I have thought you in this article. In case you need some tools for your betting, please do contact me using the WhatsApp number below.
I have the following tools that may seriously be of help to your betting life.
1. Bet tracker.
2. Betting model
3. Value bet calculator.
4. Potential win calculator
5. And much more.
MY LITTLE ADVICE TO YOU.
Don't bet on any game without value.
Avoid multiple bet or long ticket if you seriously want to make it in sport betting.
Develop an excel workbook to help you with the calculation stuff in other to ease your work.
Set betting days and do not bet on your off days no matter what.
Specialized on particular league or sport.
Avoid big league like English Premiere League.
Make sure you have account with more than four bookmakers.
Start with low bankroll and reinvest as you progress.
Always use the Kelly Criterion to calculate how much you need to stake on a bet or the fixed amount for every bet.
Avoid betting on favorite in most case try the visiting teams.
For future advice, feel free to WhatsApp me at +2348098955595.
5/10/2019
Excellent For Every Sport Betting
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